Real Valladolid
Castellón
Real Valladolid – Castellón
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 13, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 46 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.04 – 1.58
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Castellón away from home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.04 goals for Real Valladolid and 1.58 for Castellón. Bookmakers say the same thing: 41 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Real Valladolid took 9 points and Castellón 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Real Valladolid, 0 draws, 1 win for Castellón. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Valladolid | 2.85 | 33 % | -26.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | +3.0 % |
| 2Castellón | 2.25 | 41 % | +2.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Real Valladolid
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Castellón
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Real Valladolid
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Castellón
- Real Valladolid0-4Castellón
- Castellón0-1Real Valladolid
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Real Valladolid – Castellón?
Our model gives 2 · Castellón a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Real Valladolid win 26 %, draw 29 %, Castellón win 46 %.
What is the most likely score for Real Valladolid – Castellón?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.