Japan
Brazil
Japan – Brazil
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 13, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 0-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.21 – 1.57
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Brazil away from home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.21 goals for Japan and 1.57 for Brazil. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 51 %. Over their last five matches, Japan took 10 points and Brazil 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Japan, 0 draws, 2 wins for Brazil. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Japan | 3.80 | 25 % | +10.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 25 % | +4.3 % |
| 2Brazil | 1.83 | 51 % | -20.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Japan
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Brazil
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Japan
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Brazil
- Brazil2-1Japan
- Japan3-2Brazil
- Japan0-1Brazil
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Japan – Brazil?
Our model gives 2 · Brazil a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Japan win 29 %, draw 27 %, Brazil win 43 %.
What is the most likely score for Japan – Brazil?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.