Predictions are closed for this match.
Brentford
09:00 PM
Sep 18
Chelsea
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Brentford | 2.55 | 37 % | +8.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.63 | 26 % | -8.9 % |
| 2Chelsea | 2.60 | 37 % | -15.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Brentford
Chelsea
| Brentford | Form and statistics | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 1711 | Elo | 1729 |
| 2.10 | Goals scored / match | 2.20 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded / match | 1.70 |
| 15.3 | Shots / match | 13.2 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 6 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:52 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Brentford a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Brentford win 42 %, draw 25 %, Chelsea win 32 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 56 %, and both teams scoring at 59 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.55 for Brentford, 3.63 for the draw, 2.60 for Chelsea.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:00 PM (Premier League), at Gtech Community Stadium.
The model leans towards Brentford at home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.57 goals for Brentford and 1.35 for Chelsea. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 37 %. Over their last five matches, Brentford took 9 points and Chelsea 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Brentford, 3 draws, 2 wins for Chelsea. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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