Ecuador
Costa Rica
Ecuador – Costa Rica
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 13, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 74 %
- Most likely score
- 2-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.05 – 0.67
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 43 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Ecuador at home (74 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.05 goals for Ecuador and 0.67 for Costa Rica. Bookmakers say the same thing: 76 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Ecuador took 4 points and Costa Rica 6 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Ecuador, 0 draws, 0 wins for Costa Rica. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 43 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ecuador | 1.23 | 76 % | -9.1 % |
| XDraw | 6.00 | 16 % | +2.8 % |
| 2Costa Rica | 12.00 | 8 % | +7.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Ecuador
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Costa Rica
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Ecuador
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Costa Rica
- Ecuador3-1Costa Rica
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Ecuador – Costa Rica?
Our model gives 1 · Ecuador a 74 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Ecuador win 74 %, draw 17 %, Costa Rica win 9 %.
What is the most likely score for Ecuador – Costa Rica?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 14 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.