Predictions are closed for this match.
KAA Gent
08:45 PM
Sep 18
Standard Liege
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1KAA Gent | 1.88 | 50 % | -3.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 27 % | -9.3 % |
| 2Standard Liege | 4.00 | 23 % | -13.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
KAA Gent
Standard Liege
| KAA Gent | Form and statistics | Standard Liege |
|---|---|---|
| 1599 | Elo | 1539 |
| 1.60 | Goals scored / match | 1.60 |
| 0.60 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 8.9 | Shots / match | 12.5 |
| 70 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 5 | Rest days | 6 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:52 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · KAA Gent a 52 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: KAA Gent win 52 %, draw 27 %, Standard Liege win 22 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 51 %, and both teams scoring at 52 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.88 for KAA Gent, 3.40 for the draw, 4.00 for Standard Liege.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Belgian Pro League), at Ghelamco Arena.
The model leans towards KAA Gent at home (52 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.73 goals for KAA Gent and 0.99 for Standard Liege. Bookmakers say the same thing: 50 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, KAA Gent took 13 points and Standard Liege 10 points. In recent meetings: 5 wins for KAA Gent, 0 draws, 0 wins for Standard Liege. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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