Predictions are closed for this match.
AS Monaco
08:45 PM
Sep 18
Lens
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AS Monaco | 1.81 | 52 % | -27.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.88 | 25 % | -4.4 % |
| 2Lens | 4.10 | 23 % | +45.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
AS Monaco
Lens
| AS Monaco | Form and statistics | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| 1721 | Elo | 1728 |
| 2.10 | Goals scored / match | 2.00 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded / match | 1.30 |
| 12.2 | Shots / match | 17.3 |
| 60 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 6 | Rest days | 5 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:52 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · AS Monaco a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AS Monaco win 40 %, draw 25 %, Lens win 36 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 61 %, and both teams scoring at 63 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.81 for AS Monaco, 3.88 for the draw, 4.10 for Lens.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Ligue 1), at Stade Louis II.
The model leans towards AS Monaco at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.62 goals for AS Monaco and 1.55 for Lens. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 52 %. Over their last five matches, AS Monaco took 13 points and Lens 7 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for AS Monaco, 1 draw, 2 wins for Lens. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 63 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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