Predictions are closed for this match.
Monza
08:45 PM
Sep 18
Sassuolo
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Monza | 2.80 | 33 % | +5.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | -6.3 % |
| 2Sassuolo | 2.45 | 38 % | -17.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Monza
Sassuolo
| Monza | Form and statistics | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| 1563 | Elo | 1610 |
| 1.60 | Goals scored / match | 1.70 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 13.9 | Shots / match | 13.8 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 5 | Rest days | 5 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:52 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Monza a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Monza win 38 %, draw 28 %, Sassuolo win 34 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 50 %, and both teams scoring at 55 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.80 for Monza, 3.30 for the draw, 2.45 for Sassuolo.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Serie A), at U-Power Stadium.
The model leans towards Monza at home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.31 goals for Monza and 1.36 for Sassuolo. Bookmakers say the same thing: 33 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Monza took 4 points and Sassuolo 8 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Monza, 0 draws, 0 wins for Sassuolo. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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