Bayern Munich
08:30 PM
Sep 18
1. FC Union Berlin
Bayern Munich – 1. FC Union Berlin
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:52 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 4-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 4.40 – 0.71
- Over 2.5 goals
- 88 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Bayern Munich at home (90 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 4-0. It expects 4.40 goals for Bayern Munich and 0.71 for 1. FC Union Berlin. Bookmakers say the same thing: 92 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Bayern Munich took 13 points and 1. FC Union Berlin 7 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Bayern Munich, 2 draws, 0 wins for 1. FC Union Berlin. Over 2.5 goals: 88 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bayern Munich | 1.02 | 92 % | -7.6 % |
| XDraw | 17.50 | 5 % | +17.6 % |
| 21. FC Union Berlin | 31.50 | 3 % | -0.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Bayern Munich
- Last 5 matches
- At home
1. FC Union Berlin
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Bayern Munich | Form and statistics | 1. FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| 2005 | Elo | 1513 |
| 2.90 | Goals scored / match | 2.00 |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded / match | 2.30 |
| 19.8 | Shots / match | 14.7 |
| 70 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Bayern Munich
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- 1. FC Union Berlin
- Bayern Munich4-01. FC Union Berlin
- 1. FC Union Berlin2-3Bayern Munich
- 1. FC Union Berlin2-2Bayern Munich
- 1. FC Union Berlin1-1Bayern Munich
- Bayern Munich3-01. FC Union Berlin
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Bayern Munich – 1. FC Union Berlin?
Our model gives 1 · Bayern Munich a 90 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Bayern Munich win 90 %, draw 7 %, 1. FC Union Berlin win 3 %.
What is the most likely score for Bayern Munich – 1. FC Union Berlin?
The most likely score is 4-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
