Argentina
Uruguay
Argentina – Uruguay
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 13, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 72 %
- Most likely score
- 2-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.31 – 0.79
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Argentina at home (72 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.31 goals for Argentina and 0.79 for Uruguay. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 60 %. Over their last five matches, Argentina took 12 points and Uruguay 7 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Argentina, 0 draws, 1 win for Uruguay. Over 2.5 goals: 60 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Argentina | 1.57 | 60 % | +12.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 24 % | -25.3 % |
| 2Uruguay | 6.00 | 16 % | -45.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Argentina
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Uruguay
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Argentina
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Uruguay
- Uruguay0-1Argentina
- Argentina0-2Uruguay
- Uruguay0-1Argentina
- Argentina3-0Uruguay
- Argentina1-0Uruguay
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Argentina – Uruguay?
Our model gives 1 · Argentina a 72 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Argentina win 72 %, draw 19 %, Uruguay win 9 %.
What is the most likely score for Argentina – Uruguay?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.