Predictions are closed for this match.
Juve Stabia
08:30 PM
Sep 18
Cesena
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Juve Stabia | 2.27 | 41 % | +5.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.20 | 29 % | -6.1 % |
| 2Cesena | 3.23 | 29 % | -21.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Juve Stabia
Cesena
| Juve Stabia | Form and statistics | Cesena |
|---|---|---|
| 1453 | Elo | 1410 |
| 0.90 | Goals scored / match | 0.90 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded / match | 1.60 |
| 12.8 | Shots / match | 12.7 |
| 20 % | Win rate | 10 % |
| 6 | Rest days | 6 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:52 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Juve Stabia a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Juve Stabia win 46 %, draw 29 %, Cesena win 24 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 46 %, and both teams scoring at 50 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.27 for Juve Stabia, 3.20 for the draw, 3.23 for Cesena.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:30 PM (Serie B), at Romeo Menti di Castellammare.
The model leans towards Juve Stabia at home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.48 goals for Juve Stabia and 1.03 for Cesena. Bookmakers say the same thing: 41 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Juve Stabia took 4 points and Cesena 6 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Juve Stabia, 1 draw, 0 wins for Cesena. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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