Mohamed V Stadium
Morocco
Niger
Morocco – Niger
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 13, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 87 %
- Most likely score
- 2-015 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.77 – 0.49
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63 %
- Both teams to score
- 36 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Morocco at home (87 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.77 goals for Morocco and 0.49 for Niger. Bookmakers say the same thing: 86 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Morocco took 10 points and Niger 4 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Morocco, 0 draws, 0 wins for Niger. Over 2.5 goals: 63 %. Both teams to score: 36 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Morocco | 1.05 | 86 % | -8.6 % |
| XDraw | 9.50 | 10 % | -9.8 % |
| 2Niger | 21.00 | 4 % | -26.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Morocco
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Niger
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Morocco
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Niger
- Morocco5-0Niger
- Niger1-2Morocco
- Morocco1-0Niger
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Morocco – Niger?
Our model gives 1 · Morocco a 87 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Morocco win 87 %, draw 9 %, Niger win 4 %.
What is the most likely score for Morocco – Niger?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 15 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.