Netherlands
Greece
Netherlands – Greece
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 13, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 60 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.85 – 0.88
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Netherlands at home (60 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.85 goals for Netherlands and 0.88 for Greece. Bookmakers say the same thing: 61 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Netherlands took 9 points and Greece 8 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Netherlands, 1 draw, 0 wins for Greece. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Netherlands | 1.52 | 61 % | -9.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.20 | 22 % | -0.1 % |
| 2Greece | 5.25 | 18 % | -12.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Netherlands
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Greece
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Netherlands
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Greece
- Greece2-2Netherlands
- Greece0-1Netherlands
- Netherlands3-0Greece
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Netherlands – Greece?
Our model gives 1 · Netherlands a 60 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Netherlands win 60 %, draw 24 %, Greece win 17 %.
What is the most likely score for Netherlands – Greece?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.