Leganés
Burgos
Leganés – Burgos
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 13, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 42 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.08 – 1.38
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Burgos away from home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.08 goals for Leganés and 1.38 for Burgos. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 31 %. Over their last five matches, Leganés took 4 points and Burgos 13 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Leganés, 0 draws, 3 wins for Burgos. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Leganés | 2.45 | 38 % | -29.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.10 | 30 % | -9.3 % |
| 2Burgos | 3.00 | 31 % | +25.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Leganés
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Burgos
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Leganés
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Burgos
- Burgos2-1Leganés
- Leganés1-2Burgos
- Leganés2-0Burgos
- Burgos1-0Leganés
- Burgos0-3Leganés
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Leganés – Burgos?
Our model gives 2 · Burgos a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Leganés win 29 %, draw 29 %, Burgos win 42 %.
What is the most likely score for Leganés – Burgos?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.