Predictions are closed for this match.
FC Groningen
08:00 PM
Sep 18
PEC Zwolle
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Groningen | 1.57 | 60 % | -6.0 % |
| XDraw | 4.32 | 22 % | +2.1 % |
| 2PEC Zwolle | 5.13 | 18 % | -15.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
FC Groningen
PEC Zwolle
| FC Groningen | Form and statistics | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| 1546 | Elo | 1457 |
| 1.80 | Goals scored / match | 1.00 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded / match | 2.80 |
| 13.1 | Shots / match | 9.5 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 20 % |
| 6 | Rest days | 5 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:52 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · FC Groningen a 60 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: FC Groningen win 60 %, draw 24 %, PEC Zwolle win 16 %.
The most likely score is 2-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 59 %, and both teams scoring at 55 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.57 for FC Groningen, 4.32 for the draw, 5.13 for PEC Zwolle.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 18, 2026 at 08:00 PM (Eredivisie), at Euroborg.
The model leans towards FC Groningen at home (60 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.06 goals for FC Groningen and 1.00 for PEC Zwolle. Bookmakers say the same thing: 60 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, FC Groningen took 5 points and PEC Zwolle 4 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for FC Groningen, 3 draws, 1 win for PEC Zwolle. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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