Stade de Reims
08:00 PM
Sep 18
Montpellier
Stade de Reims – Montpellier
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:52 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.58 – 1.02
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Stade de Reims at home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.58 goals for Stade de Reims and 1.02 for Montpellier. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 42 %. Over their last five matches, Stade de Reims took 11 points and Montpellier 10 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Stade de Reims, 2 draws, 1 win for Montpellier. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Stade de Reims | 2.17 | 42 % | +10.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.23 | 29 % | -14.2 % |
| 2Montpellier | 3.15 | 29 % | -29.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Stade de Reims
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Montpellier
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Stade de Reims | Form and statistics | Montpellier |
|---|---|---|
| 1594 | Elo | 1508 |
| 2.40 | Goals scored / match | 1.10 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 0.80 |
| 10.9 | Shots / match | 12.9 |
| 50 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Stade de Reims
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Montpellier
- Montpellier0-0Stade de Reims
- Stade de Reims2-0Montpellier
- Montpellier0-0Stade de Reims
- Stade de Reims4-2Montpellier
- Stade de Reims1-2Montpellier
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Stade de Reims – Montpellier?
Our model gives 1 · Stade de Reims a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Stade de Reims win 51 %, draw 27 %, Montpellier win 22 %.
What is the most likely score for Stade de Reims – Montpellier?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
