Rodez Aveyron
08:00 PM
Sep 18
AS Nancy Lorraine
Rodez Aveyron – AS Nancy Lorraine
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:52 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.69 – 1.00
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Rodez Aveyron at home (55 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.69 goals for Rodez Aveyron and 1.00 for AS Nancy Lorraine. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 37 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 2.52, the predicted outcome carries +38.3 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Rodez Aveyron took 4 points and AS Nancy Lorraine 6 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Rodez Aveyron, 1 draw, 0 wins for AS Nancy Lorraine. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rodez Aveyron | 2.52 | 37 % | +38.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.23 | 29 % | -18.7 % |
| 2AS Nancy Lorraine |
Form and statistics
Rodez Aveyron
- Last 5 matches
- At home
AS Nancy Lorraine
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Rodez Aveyron | Form and statistics | AS Nancy Lorraine |
|---|---|---|
| 1530 | Elo | 1429 |
| 1.80 | Goals scored / match | 1.20 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded / match | 1.30 |
| 15.3 | Shots / match | 12.4 |
| 50 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Rodez Aveyron
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- AS Nancy Lorraine
- AS Nancy Lorraine1-3Rodez Aveyron
- Rodez Aveyron0-0AS Nancy Lorraine
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Rodez Aveyron – AS Nancy Lorraine?
Our model gives 1 · Rodez Aveyron a 55 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Rodez Aveyron win 55 %, draw 25 %, AS Nancy Lorraine win 20 %.
What is the most likely score for Rodez Aveyron – AS Nancy Lorraine?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
