Italy
3-1
France
Italy – France
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 11, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 51 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.10 – 1.64
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Italy 3-1 France. The model predicted a win for France (51 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.10 goals for Italy and 1.64 for France. Bookmakers say the same thing: 50 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Italy took 10 points and France 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Italy, 1 draw, 1 win for France. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Italy | 3.70 | 25 % | -12.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -8.4 % |
| 2France | 1.86 | 50 % | -5.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Italy
- Last 5 matches
- At home
France
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Italy
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- France
- France1-1Italy
- Italy1-3France
- France1-3Italy
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Italy – France?
Final score: Italy 3-1 France. The model predicted a win for France (51 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Italy – France?
Our model gives 2 · France a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Italy win 24 %, draw 25 %, France win 51 %.