England
2-1
Croatia
England – Croatia
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 11, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 69 %
- Most likely score
- 2-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.27 – 0.83
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: England 2-1 Croatia. The model predicted a win for England (69 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.27 goals for England and 0.83 for Croatia. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 75 %. Over their last five matches, England took 12 points and Croatia 3 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for England, 0 draws, 0 wins for Croatia. Over 2.5 goals: 60 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1England | 1.23 | 75 % | -15.1 % |
| XDraw | 5.75 | 16 % | +7.3 % |
| 2Croatia | 10.00 | 9 % | +22.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
England
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Croatia
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- England
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Croatia
- Croatia0-7England
- England4-2Croatia
- England1-0Croatia
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of England – Croatia?
Final score: England 2-1 Croatia. The model predicted a win for England (69 %): correct prediction.
Who will win England – Croatia?
Our model gives 1 · England a 69 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: England win 69 %, draw 19 %, Croatia win 12 %.