Stade du 28 Septembre
Guinea
2-1
Eritrea
Guinea – Eritrea
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 11, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 63 %
- Most likely score
- 1-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.91 – 0.71
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Guinea 2-1 Eritrea. The model predicted a win for Guinea (63 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.91 goals for Guinea and 0.71 for Eritrea. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 74 %. Over their last five matches, Guinea took 4 points and Eritrea 7 points. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 43 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Guinea | 1.23 | 74 % | -22.1 % |
| XDraw | 5.25 | 17 % | +13.9 % |
| 2Eritrea | 10.50 | 9 % | +57.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Guinea
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Eritrea
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Guinea – Eritrea?
Final score: Guinea 2-1 Eritrea. The model predicted a win for Guinea (63 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Guinea – Eritrea?
Our model gives 1 · Guinea a 63 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Guinea win 63 %, draw 22 %, Eritrea win 15 %.