Stade d'honneur de Meknès
Madagascar
1-1
Guinea-Bissau
Madagascar – Guinea-Bissau
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 11, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.24 – 1.00
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Madagascar 1-1 Guinea-Bissau. The model predicted a win for Madagascar (41 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.24 goals for Madagascar and 1.00 for Guinea-Bissau. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 30 %. Over their last five matches, Madagascar took 7 points and Guinea-Bissau 9 points. Over 2.5 goals: 39 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Madagascar | 3.00 | 30 % | +24.3 % |
| XDraw | 2.95 | 31 % | -12.1 % |
| 2Guinea-Bissau | 2.35 | 39 % | -32.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Madagascar
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Guinea-Bissau
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Madagascar – Guinea-Bissau?
Final score: Madagascar 1-1 Guinea-Bissau. The model predicted a win for Madagascar (41 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Madagascar – Guinea-Bissau?
Our model gives 1 · Madagascar a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Madagascar win 41 %, draw 30 %, Guinea-Bissau win 29 %.