Predictions are closed for this match.
Sarpsborg FK
07:00 PM
Sep 18
KFUM Oslo
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sarpsborg FK | 1.58 | 60 % | -14.1 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | +2.1 % |
| 2KFUM Oslo | 5.50 | 17 % | +14.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Sarpsborg FK
KFUM Oslo
| Sarpsborg FK | Form and statistics | KFUM Oslo |
|---|---|---|
| 1524 | Elo | 1453 |
| 1.20 | Goals scored / match | 1.00 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded / match | 1.70 |
| 14.1 | Shots / match | 9.4 |
| 30 % | Win rate | 30 % |
| 4 | Rest days | 5 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:52 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Sarpsborg FK a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sarpsborg FK win 54 %, draw 25 %, KFUM Oslo win 21 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 56 %, and both teams scoring at 55 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.58 for Sarpsborg FK, 4.10 for the draw, 5.50 for KFUM Oslo.
Kick-off is scheduled for Friday, September 18, 2026 at 07:00 PM (Eliteserien), at Sarpsborg Stadion.
The model leans towards Sarpsborg FK at home (54 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.90 goals for Sarpsborg FK and 1.03 for KFUM Oslo. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 60 %. Over their last five matches, Sarpsborg FK took 3 points and KFUM Oslo 7 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Sarpsborg FK, 0 draws, 2 wins for KFUM Oslo. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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