VfL Wolfsburg
06:30 PM
Sep 18
SV Darmstadt 98
VfL Wolfsburg – SV Darmstadt 98
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:52 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.00 – 1.07
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards VfL Wolfsburg at home (57 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.00 goals for VfL Wolfsburg and 1.07 for SV Darmstadt 98. Bookmakers say the same thing: 62 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, VfL Wolfsburg took 8 points and SV Darmstadt 98 6 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for VfL Wolfsburg, 0 draws, 0 wins for SV Darmstadt 98. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1VfL Wolfsburg | 1.50 | 62 % | -13.7 % |
| XDraw | 4.52 | 21 % | +4.9 % |
| 2SV Darmstadt 98 | 5.50 | 17 % | +7.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
VfL Wolfsburg
- Last 5 matches
- At home
SV Darmstadt 98
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| VfL Wolfsburg | Form and statistics | SV Darmstadt 98 |
|---|---|---|
| 1517 | Elo | 1488 |
| 1.70 | Goals scored / match | 1.10 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded / match | 1.70 |
| 18.6 | Shots / match | 14.1 |
| 30 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- VfL Wolfsburg
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- SV Darmstadt 98
- VfL Wolfsburg3-0SV Darmstadt 98
- SV Darmstadt 980-1VfL Wolfsburg
Frequently asked questions
Who will win VfL Wolfsburg – SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model gives 1 · VfL Wolfsburg a 57 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: VfL Wolfsburg win 57 %, draw 23 %, SV Darmstadt 98 win 19 %.
What is the most likely score for VfL Wolfsburg – SV Darmstadt 98?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
