Málaga
1-3
Villarreal
Málaga – Villarreal
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:50 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 0-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.28 – 1.42
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Málaga 1-3 Villarreal. The model predicted a win for Villarreal (37 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.28 goals for Málaga and 1.42 for Villarreal. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 46 %. Over their last five matches, Málaga took 3 points and Villarreal 1 point. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Málaga | 3.45 | 28 % | +16.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 27 % | +3.2 % |
| 2Villarreal | 2.10 | 46 % | -21.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Málaga
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Villarreal
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Málaga – Villarreal?
Final score: Málaga 1-3 Villarreal. The model predicted a win for Villarreal (37 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Málaga – Villarreal?
Our model gives 2 · Villarreal a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Málaga win 34 %, draw 29 %, Villarreal win 37 %.