Viktoria Plzen
09:00 PM
Sep 17
Union St.-Gilloise
Viktoria Plzen – Union St.-Gilloise
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:50 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.33 – 1.65
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 60 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Union St.-Gilloise away from home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.33 goals for Viktoria Plzen and 1.65 for Union St.-Gilloise. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 38 %. Over their last five matches, Viktoria Plzen took 8 points and Union St.-Gilloise 13 points. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Viktoria Plzen | 2.61 | 36 % | -19.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.63 | 26 % | -14.8 % |
| 2Union St.-Gilloise | 2.52 | 38 % | +15.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Viktoria Plzen
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Union St.-Gilloise
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Viktoria Plzen | Form and statistics | Union St.-Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| 1664 | Elo | 1784 |
| 1.20 | Goals scored / match | 2.90 |
| 0.90 | Goals conceded / match | 1.00 |
| 14.5 | Shots / match | 15.6 |
| 30 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Viktoria Plzen – Union St.-Gilloise?
Our model gives 2 · Union St.-Gilloise a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Viktoria Plzen win 31 %, draw 24 %, Union St.-Gilloise win 46 %.
What is the most likely score for Viktoria Plzen – Union St.-Gilloise?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
