León
Guadalajara
León – Guadalajara
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 7, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.18 – 1.60
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Guadalajara away from home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.18 goals for León and 1.60 for Guadalajara. Bookmakers say the same thing: 44 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, León took 5 points and Guadalajara 11 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for León, 0 draws, 2 wins for Guadalajara. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1León | 3.15 | 30 % | -17.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | -6.9 % |
| 2Guadalajara | 2.15 | 44 % | +2.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
León
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Guadalajara
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- León
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Guadalajara
- Guadalajara5-0León
- León1-0Guadalajara
- León2-1Guadalajara
- Guadalajara2-0León
- Guadalajara1-2León
Frequently asked questions
Who will win León – Guadalajara?
Our model gives 2 · Guadalajara a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: León win 26 %, draw 26 %, Guadalajara win 48 %.
What is the most likely score for León – Guadalajara?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.