Goiás
Ponte Preta
Goiás – Ponte Preta
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 7, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 79 %
- Most likely score
- 2-015 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.32 – 0.58
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 40 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Goiás at home (79 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.32 goals for Goiás and 0.58 for Ponte Preta. Bookmakers say the same thing: 83 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Goiás took 13 points and Ponte Preta 2 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Goiás, 2 draws, 1 win for Ponte Preta. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 40 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Goiás | 1.12 | 83 % | -12.1 % |
| XDraw | 8.00 | 12 % | +17.6 % |
| 2Ponte Preta | 16.00 | 6 % | +8.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Goiás
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Ponte Preta
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Goiás
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Ponte Preta
- Ponte Preta1-2Goiás
- Ponte Preta1-1Goiás
- Goiás3-0Ponte Preta
- Goiás2-2Ponte Preta
- Ponte Preta2-1Goiás
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Goiás – Ponte Preta?
Our model gives 1 · Goiás a 79 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Goiás win 79 %, draw 15 %, Ponte Preta win 7 %.
What is the most likely score for Goiás – Ponte Preta?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 15 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.