Ceará
América Mineiro
Ceará – América Mineiro
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 7, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 53 %
- Most likely score
- 1-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.49 – 0.85
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42 %
- Both teams to score
- 45 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Ceará at home (53 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.49 goals for Ceará and 0.85 for América Mineiro. Bookmakers say the same thing: 56 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Ceará took 4 points and América Mineiro 9 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Ceará, 2 draws, 1 win for América Mineiro. Over 2.5 goals: 42 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ceará | 1.66 | 56 % | -12.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.75 | 25 % | +3.4 % |
| 2América Mineiro | 4.80 | 19 % | -4.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Ceará
- Last 5 matches
- At home
América Mineiro
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Ceará
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- América Mineiro
- América Mineiro1-1Ceará
- Ceará1-0América Mineiro
- América Mineiro2-2Ceará
- Ceará1-2América Mineiro
- América Mineiro0-2Ceará
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Ceará – América Mineiro?
Our model gives 1 · Ceará a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Ceará win 53 %, draw 28 %, América Mineiro win 20 %.
What is the most likely score for Ceará – América Mineiro?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 14 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.