Crystal Palace
09:00 PM
Sep 17
Lech Poznan
Crystal Palace – Lech Poznan
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:50 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.86 – 1.19
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Crystal Palace at home (54 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.86 goals for Crystal Palace and 1.19 for Lech Poznan. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 66 %. Over their last five matches, Crystal Palace took 6 points and Lech Poznan 10 points. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Crystal Palace | 1.44 | 66 % | -21.8 % |
| XDraw | 5.00 | 19 % | -5.5 % |
| 2Lech Poznan | 6.25 | 15 % | +66.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Crystal Palace
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Lech Poznan
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Crystal Palace | Form and statistics | Lech Poznan |
|---|---|---|
| 1663 | Elo | 1613 |
| 1.50 | Goals scored / match | 2.60 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded / match | 1.10 |
| 11.1 | Shots / match | 13.6 |
| 30 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Crystal Palace – Lech Poznan?
Our model gives 1 · Crystal Palace a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Crystal Palace win 54 %, draw 19 %, Lech Poznan win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for Crystal Palace – Lech Poznan?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
