Atlético Madrid
Barcelona
Atlético Madrid – Barcelona
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 7, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 51 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.28 – 1.95
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63 %
- Both teams to score
- 62 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Barcelona away from home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.28 goals for Atlético Madrid and 1.95 for Barcelona. Bookmakers say the same thing: 53 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Atlético Madrid took 10 points and Barcelona 9 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Atlético Madrid, 0 draws, 3 wins for Barcelona. Over 2.5 goals: 63 %. Both teams to score: 62 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlético Madrid | 3.85 | 25 % | -3.3 % |
| XDraw | 4.40 | 22 % | +4.1 % |
| 2Barcelona | 1.80 | 53 % | -7.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Atlético Madrid
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Barcelona
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Atlético Madrid
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Barcelona
- Atlético Madrid1-2Barcelona
- Barcelona0-2Atlético Madrid
- Atlético Madrid1-2Barcelona
- Barcelona3-0Atlético Madrid
- Atlético Madrid4-0Barcelona
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atlético Madrid – Barcelona?
Our model gives 2 · Barcelona a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Atlético Madrid win 25 %, draw 24 %, Barcelona win 51 %.
What is the most likely score for Atlético Madrid – Barcelona?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.