Lens
Marseille
Lens – Marseille
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 7, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 50 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.77 – 1.31
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60 %
- Both teams to score
- 61 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Lens at home (50 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.77 goals for Lens and 1.31 for Marseille. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 42 %. Over their last five matches, Lens took 6 points and Marseille 12 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Lens, 0 draws, 3 wins for Marseille. Over 2.5 goals: 60 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lens | 2.27 | 42 % | +14.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.88 | 25 % | -7.3 % |
| 2Marseille | 2.84 | 34 % | -27.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Lens
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Marseille
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Lens
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Marseille
- Marseille3-1Lens
- Lens2-1Marseille
- Marseille0-1Lens
- Lens1-3Marseille
- Marseille2-1Lens
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lens – Marseille?
Our model gives 1 · Lens a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Lens win 50 %, draw 24 %, Marseille win 26 %.
What is the most likely score for Lens – Marseille?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.