Predictions are closed for this match.
Celtic
09:00 PM
Sep 17
Ferencvaros
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Celtic | 1.67 | 56 % | +13.1 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 24 % | -34.7 % |
| 2Ferencvaros | 4.70 | 20 % | -24.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Celtic
Ferencvaros
| Celtic | Form and statistics | Ferencvaros |
|---|---|---|
| 1766 | Elo | 1686 |
| 2.40 | Goals scored / match | 1.80 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded / match | 0.90 |
| 18.2 | Shots / match | 12.0 |
| 90 % | Win rate | 70 % |
| 8 | Rest days | 21 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:50 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Celtic a 68 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Celtic win 68 %, draw 16 %, Ferencvaros win 16 %.
The most likely score is 2-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 65 %, and both teams scoring at 57 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.67 for Celtic, 4.00 for the draw, 4.70 for Ferencvaros.
Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 09:00 PM (Europa League), at Celtic Park.
The model leans towards Celtic at home (68 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.37 goals for Celtic and 0.99 for Ferencvaros. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 56 %. Over their last five matches, Celtic took 12 points and Ferencvaros 11 points. Over 2.5 goals: 65 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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