Vitória de Guimaraes
FC Porto
Vitória de Guimaraes – FC Porto
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 7, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 57 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.97 – 1.69
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards FC Porto away from home (57 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 0.97 goals for Vitória de Guimaraes and 1.69 for FC Porto. Bookmakers say the same thing: 59 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Vitória de Guimaraes took 8 points and FC Porto 9 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Vitória de Guimaraes, 1 draw, 4 wins for FC Porto. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vitória de Guimaraes | 5.13 | 18 % | -1.3 % |
| XDraw | 4.05 | 23 % | -1.9 % |
| 2FC Porto | 1.57 | 59 % | -11.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Vitória de Guimaraes
- Last 5 matches
- At home
FC Porto
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Vitória de Guimaraes
- 1 draw
- 4 wins
- FC Porto
- Vitória de Guimaraes0-1FC Porto
- FC Porto3-0Vitória de Guimaraes
- FC Porto1-1Vitória de Guimaraes
- Vitória de Guimaraes0-3FC Porto
- FC Porto3-1Vitória de Guimaraes
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Vitória de Guimaraes – FC Porto?
Our model gives 2 · FC Porto a 57 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Vitória de Guimaraes win 19 %, draw 24 %, FC Porto win 57 %.
What is the most likely score for Vitória de Guimaraes – FC Porto?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.