Predictions are closed for this match.
Besiktas
09:00 PM
Sep 17
Marseille
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Besiktas | 1.67 | 56 % | -0.2 % |
| XDraw | 4.27 | 22 % | -17.0 % |
| 2Marseille | 4.42 | 21 % | -7.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Besiktas
Marseille
| Besiktas | Form and statistics | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| 1687 | Elo | 1655 |
| 1.90 | Goals scored / match | 1.40 |
| 0.50 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 17.9 | Shots / match | 16.3 |
| 80 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 6 | Rest days | 6 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:50 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Besiktas a 60 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Besiktas win 60 %, draw 19 %, Marseille win 21 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 59 %, and both teams scoring at 57 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.67 for Besiktas, 4.27 for the draw, 4.42 for Marseille.
Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 09:00 PM (Europa League), at Vodafone Park.
The model leans towards Besiktas at home (60 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.01 goals for Besiktas and 1.07 for Marseille. Bookmakers say the same thing: 56 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Besiktas took 9 points and Marseille 6 points. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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