Manchester City
08:30 PM
Sep 17
Norwich City
Manchester City – Norwich City
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:50 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 3-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 3.51 – 0.68
- Over 2.5 goals
- 79 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Manchester City at home (86 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 3-0. It expects 3.51 goals for Manchester City and 0.68 for Norwich City. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 81 %. Over their last five matches, Manchester City took 15 points and Norwich City 9 points. Over 2.5 goals: 79 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Manchester City | 1.15 | 81 % | -0.7 % |
| XDraw | 7.00 | 13 % | -40.4 % |
| 2Norwich City | 15.00 | 6 % | -22.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Manchester City
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Norwich City
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Manchester City | Form and statistics | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| 1942 | Elo | 1534 |
| 1.90 | Goals scored / match | 2.00 |
| 0.50 | Goals conceded / match | 1.70 |
| 15.1 | Shots / match | 15.9 |
| 80 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Manchester City – Norwich City?
Our model gives 1 · Manchester City a 86 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Manchester City win 86 %, draw 9 %, Norwich City win 5 %.
What is the most likely score for Manchester City – Norwich City?
The most likely score is 3-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
