SK Sturm Graz
RB Salzburg
SK Sturm Graz – RB Salzburg
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 7, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.42 – 1.26
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards SK Sturm Graz at home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.42 goals for SK Sturm Graz and 1.26 for RB Salzburg. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 32 %. Over their last five matches, SK Sturm Graz took 8 points and RB Salzburg 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for SK Sturm Graz, 3 draws, 1 win for RB Salzburg. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1SK Sturm Graz | 2.90 | 32 % | +10.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.95 | 24 % | +11.3 % |
| 2RB Salzburg | 2.15 | 44 % | -27.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
SK Sturm Graz
- Last 5 matches
- At home
RB Salzburg
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- SK Sturm Graz
- 3 draws
- 1 win
- RB Salzburg
- RB Salzburg3-0SK Sturm Graz
- RB Salzburg1-1SK Sturm Graz
- SK Sturm Graz1-1RB Salzburg
- SK Sturm Graz1-1RB Salzburg
- RB Salzburg0-2SK Sturm Graz
Frequently asked questions
Who will win SK Sturm Graz – RB Salzburg?
Our model gives 1 · SK Sturm Graz a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: SK Sturm Graz win 38 %, draw 28 %, RB Salzburg win 34 %.
What is the most likely score for SK Sturm Graz – RB Salzburg?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.