AZ Alkmaar
FC Groningen
AZ Alkmaar – FC Groningen
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 7, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 64 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.33 – 1.11
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67 %
- Both teams to score
- 61 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards AZ Alkmaar at home (64 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.33 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 1.11 for FC Groningen. Bookmakers say the same thing: 62 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, AZ Alkmaar took 4 points and FC Groningen 4 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for AZ Alkmaar, 1 draw, 1 win for FC Groningen. Over 2.5 goals: 67 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AZ Alkmaar | 1.50 | 62 % | -4.5 % |
| XDraw | 4.60 | 20 % | -7.8 % |
| 2FC Groningen | 5.25 | 18 % | -14.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
AZ Alkmaar
- Last 5 matches
- At home
FC Groningen
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- AZ Alkmaar
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- FC Groningen
- FC Groningen3-0AZ Alkmaar
- AZ Alkmaar4-1FC Groningen
- AZ Alkmaar3-0FC Groningen
- AZ Alkmaar3-1FC Groningen
- FC Groningen0-0AZ Alkmaar
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AZ Alkmaar – FC Groningen?
Our model gives 1 · AZ Alkmaar a 64 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AZ Alkmaar win 64 %, draw 20 %, FC Groningen win 16 %.
What is the most likely score for AZ Alkmaar – FC Groningen?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.