Girona
Almería
Girona – Almería
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 7, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.49 – 1.04
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Girona at home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.49 goals for Girona and 1.04 for Almería. Bookmakers say the same thing: 46 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Girona took 10 points and Almería 11 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Girona, 1 draw, 1 win for Almería. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Girona | 2.05 | 46 % | -1.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | +2.3 % |
| 2Almería | 3.40 | 28 % | -22.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Girona
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Almería
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Girona
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Almería
- Almería0-0Girona
- Girona5-2Almería
- Girona6-2Almería
- Almería3-2Girona
- Almería0-1Girona
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Girona – Almería?
Our model gives 1 · Girona a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Girona win 48 %, draw 29 %, Almería win 23 %.
What is the most likely score for Girona – Almería?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.