Heart of Midlothian
Falkirk
Heart of Midlothian – Falkirk
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 7, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 57 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.87 – 1.07
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Heart of Midlothian at home (57 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.87 goals for Heart of Midlothian and 1.07 for Falkirk. Bookmakers say the same thing: 59 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Heart of Midlothian took 4 points and Falkirk 12 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Heart of Midlothian, 1 draw, 1 win for Falkirk. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Heart of Midlothian | 1.58 | 59 % | -9.2 % |
| XDraw | 4.40 | 21 % | +2.6 % |
| 2Falkirk | 4.65 | 20 % | -10.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Heart of Midlothian
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Falkirk
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Heart of Midlothian
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Falkirk
- Falkirk2-1Heart of Midlothian
- Heart of Midlothian3-0Falkirk
- Heart of Midlothian1-0Falkirk
- Heart of Midlothian1-1Falkirk
- Falkirk0-2Heart of Midlothian
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Heart of Midlothian – Falkirk?
Our model gives 1 · Heart of Midlothian a 57 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Heart of Midlothian win 57 %, draw 23 %, Falkirk win 19 %.
What is the most likely score for Heart of Midlothian – Falkirk?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.