FC Cologne
Bayer Leverkusen
FC Cologne – Bayer Leverkusen
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 7, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 53 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.23 – 2.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64 %
- Both teams to score
- 62 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Bayer Leverkusen away from home (53 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.23 goals for FC Cologne and 2.06 for Bayer Leverkusen. Bookmakers say the same thing: 52 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, FC Cologne took 8 points and Bayer Leverkusen 6 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for FC Cologne, 0 draws, 5 wins for Bayer Leverkusen. Over 2.5 goals: 64 %. Both teams to score: 62 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Cologne | 3.80 | 25 % | -14.3 % |
| XDraw | 4.03 | 23 % | -0.9 % |
| 2Bayer Leverkusen | 1.82 | 52 % | -4.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
FC Cologne
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Bayer Leverkusen
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- FC Cologne
- 0 draws
- 5 wins
- Bayer Leverkusen
- FC Cologne1-2Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen2-0FC Cologne
- Bayer Leverkusen3-2FC Cologne
- FC Cologne0-2Bayer Leverkusen
- Bayer Leverkusen3-0FC Cologne
Frequently asked questions
Who will win FC Cologne – Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model gives 2 · Bayer Leverkusen a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: FC Cologne win 23 %, draw 25 %, Bayer Leverkusen win 53 %.
What is the most likely score for FC Cologne – Bayer Leverkusen?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.