Genoa
AC Milan
Genoa – AC Milan
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 7, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 42 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.15 – 1.37
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards AC Milan away from home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.15 goals for Genoa and 1.37 for AC Milan. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 52 %. Over their last five matches, Genoa took 12 points and AC Milan 6 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Genoa, 3 draws, 2 wins for AC Milan. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Genoa | 4.45 | 21 % | +28.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.52 | 27 % | +2.4 % |
| 2AC Milan | 1.78 | 52 % | -25.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Genoa
- Last 5 matches
- At home
AC Milan
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Genoa
- 3 draws
- 2 wins
- AC Milan
- Genoa1-2AC Milan
- AC Milan1-1Genoa
- Genoa1-2AC Milan
- AC Milan0-0Genoa
- AC Milan3-3Genoa
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Genoa – AC Milan?
Our model gives 2 · AC Milan a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Genoa win 29 %, draw 29 %, AC Milan win 42 %.
What is the most likely score for Genoa – AC Milan?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.