FC Twente
Ajax Amsterdam
FC Twente – Ajax Amsterdam
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 7, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.09 – 1.63
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72 %
- Both teams to score
- 71 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards FC Twente at home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.09 goals for FC Twente and 1.63 for Ajax Amsterdam. Bookmakers say the same thing: 41 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, FC Twente took 12 points and Ajax Amsterdam 15 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for FC Twente, 1 draw, 3 wins for Ajax Amsterdam. Over 2.5 goals: 72 %. Both teams to score: 71 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1FC Twente | 2.25 | 41 % | -0.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 25 % | -11.7 % |
| 2Ajax Amsterdam | 2.75 | 34 % | -11.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
FC Twente
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Ajax Amsterdam
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- FC Twente
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Ajax Amsterdam
- Ajax Amsterdam1-2FC Twente
- FC Twente2-3Ajax Amsterdam
- Ajax Amsterdam2-0FC Twente
- FC Twente2-2Ajax Amsterdam
- Ajax Amsterdam2-1FC Twente
Frequently asked questions
Who will win FC Twente – Ajax Amsterdam?
Our model gives 1 · FC Twente a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: FC Twente win 44 %, draw 23 %, Ajax Amsterdam win 32 %.
What is the most likely score for FC Twente – Ajax Amsterdam?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.