Vejlby Stadion
AGF
AC Horsens
AGF – AC Horsens
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 7, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 60 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.00 – 1.02
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards AGF at home (60 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.00 goals for AGF and 1.02 for AC Horsens. Bookmakers say the same thing: 58 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, AGF took 6 points and AC Horsens 6 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for AGF, 1 draw, 1 win for AC Horsens. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AGF | 1.60 | 58 % | -3.4 % |
| XDraw | 4.20 | 22 % | -8.5 % |
| 2AC Horsens | 4.80 | 19 % | -14.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
AGF
- Last 5 matches
- At home
AC Horsens
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- AGF
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- AC Horsens
- AC Horsens2-2AGF
- AGF2-0AC Horsens
- AC Horsens2-1AGF
- AC Horsens1-2AGF
- AGF3-0AC Horsens
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AGF – AC Horsens?
Our model gives 1 · AGF a 60 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AGF win 60 %, draw 22 %, AC Horsens win 18 %.
What is the most likely score for AGF – AC Horsens?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.