Barcelona
09:30 PM
Sep 16
Racing Santander
Barcelona – Racing Santander
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:49 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 3-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 3.47 – 0.74
- Over 2.5 goals
- 79 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Barcelona at home (85 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 3-0. It expects 3.47 goals for Barcelona and 0.74 for Racing Santander. Bookmakers say the same thing: 90 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Barcelona took 15 points and Racing Santander 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Barcelona, 0 draws, 0 wins for Racing Santander. Over 2.5 goals: 79 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barcelona | 1.06 | 90 % | -9.6 % |
| XDraw | 15.00 | 6 % | +48.5 % |
| 2Racing Santander | 26.00 | 4 % | +24.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Barcelona
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Racing Santander
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Barcelona | Form and statistics | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|
| 1946 | Elo | 1630 |
| 3.20 | Goals scored / match | 2.40 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded / match | 1.50 |
| 16.4 | Shots / match | 14.7 |
| 80 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Barcelona
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Racing Santander
- Racing Santander0-2Barcelona
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Barcelona – Racing Santander?
Our model gives 1 · Barcelona a 85 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Barcelona win 85 %, draw 10 %, Racing Santander win 5 %.
What is the most likely score for Barcelona – Racing Santander?
The most likely score is 3-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
