Napoli
Lazio
Napoli – Lazio
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 7, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.57 – 1.30
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55 %
- Both teams to score
- 58 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Napoli at home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.57 goals for Napoli and 1.30 for Lazio. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Napoli took 7 points and Lazio 15 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Napoli, 1 draw, 3 wins for Lazio. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Napoli | 2.25 | 42 % | -8.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.52 | 27 % | -4.3 % |
| 2Lazio | 2.92 | 32 % | -5.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Napoli
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Lazio
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Napoli
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Lazio
- Napoli0-2Lazio
- Lazio0-2Napoli
- Lazio2-2Napoli
- Napoli0-1Lazio
- Lazio3-1Napoli
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Napoli – Lazio?
Our model gives 1 · Napoli a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Napoli win 41 %, draw 27 %, Lazio win 32 %.
What is the most likely score for Napoli – Lazio?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.