Manchester United
09:00 PM
Sep 16
Brighton & Hove Albion
Manchester United – Brighton & Hove Albion
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:49 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.71 – 1.52
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63 %
- Both teams to score
- 64 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Manchester United at home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.71 goals for Manchester United and 1.52 for Brighton & Hove Albion. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 51 %. Over their last five matches, Manchester United took 7 points and Brighton & Hove Albion 10 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Manchester United, 0 draws, 3 wins for Brighton & Hove Albion. Over 2.5 goals: 63 %. Both teams to score: 64 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Manchester United | 1.80 | 51 % | -18.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.90 | 24 % | -18.4 % |
| 2Brighton & Hove Albion | 3.65 | 25 % | +23.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Manchester United
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Brighton & Hove Albion
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Manchester United | Form and statistics | Brighton & Hove Albion |
|---|---|---|
| 1759 | Elo | 1733 |
| 2.20 | Goals scored / match | 2.10 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded / match | 1.20 |
| 18.5 | Shots / match | 18.3 |
| 60 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Manchester United
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Brighton & Hove Albion
- Brighton & Hove Albion0-3Manchester United
- Manchester United1-2Brighton & Hove Albion
- Manchester United4-2Brighton & Hove Albion
- Manchester United1-3Brighton & Hove Albion
- Brighton & Hove Albion2-1
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Manchester United – Brighton & Hove Albion?
Our model gives 1 · Manchester United a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Manchester United win 45 %, draw 21 %, Brighton & Hove Albion win 34 %.
What is the most likely score for Manchester United – Brighton & Hove Albion?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
