Coventry City
09:00 PM
Sep 16
Aston Villa
Coventry City – Aston Villa
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:49 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.13 – 1.72
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Aston Villa away from home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.13 goals for Coventry City and 1.72 for Aston Villa. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 45 %. Over their last five matches, Coventry City took 3 points and Aston Villa 4 points. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Coventry City | 3.30 | 28 % | -12.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -21.0 % |
| 2Aston Villa | 2.05 | 45 % | +4.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Coventry City
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Aston Villa
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Coventry City | Form and statistics | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 1598 | Elo | 1760 |
| 1.70 | Goals scored / match | 1.60 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 1.60 |
| 13.3 | Shots / match | 13.0 |
| 40 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Coventry City – Aston Villa?
Our model gives 2 · Aston Villa a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Coventry City win 26 %, draw 23 %, Aston Villa win 51 %.
What is the most likely score for Coventry City – Aston Villa?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
