Sunderland
1-0
AZ Alkmaar
Sunderland – AZ Alkmaar
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:49 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.47 – 1.43
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Sunderland 1-0 AZ Alkmaar. The model predicted a win for Sunderland (39 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.47 goals for Sunderland and 1.43 for AZ Alkmaar. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 64 %. Over their last five matches, Sunderland took 7 points and AZ Alkmaar 13 points. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sunderland | 1.48 | 64 % | -42.2 % |
| XDraw | 4.32 | 22 % | -1.0 % |
| 2AZ Alkmaar | 6.50 | 14 % | +147.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Sunderland
- Last 5 matches
- At home
AZ Alkmaar
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Sunderland – AZ Alkmaar?
Final score: Sunderland 1-0 AZ Alkmaar. The model predicted a win for Sunderland (39 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Sunderland – AZ Alkmaar?
Our model gives 1 · Sunderland a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sunderland win 39 %, draw 23 %, AZ Alkmaar win 38 %.