Predictions are closed for this match.
AC Milan
09:00 PM
Sep 16
Benfica
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AC Milan | 2.20 | 43 % | -43.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.52 | 27 % | -30.1 % |
| 2Benfica | 3.25 | 29 % | +76.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
AC Milan
Benfica
| AC Milan | Form and statistics | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| 1713 | Elo | 1854 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 3.40 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded / match | 0.80 |
| 11.9 | Shots / match | 21.3 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 80 % |
| 4 | Rest days | 3 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:49 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Benfica a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AC Milan win 26 %, draw 20 %, Benfica win 54 %.
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 64 %, and both teams scoring at 63 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.20 for AC Milan, 3.52 for the draw, 3.25 for Benfica.
Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 09:00 PM (Europa League), at San Siro.
The model leans towards Benfica away from home (54 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.30 goals for AC Milan and 1.98 for Benfica. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 29 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 3.25, the predicted outcome carries +76.6 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, AC Milan took 8 points and Benfica 15 points. Over 2.5 goals: 64 %. Both teams to score: 63 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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