Qingdao Hainiu
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Qingdao Hainiu – Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 06:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.43 – 1.60
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58 %
- Both teams to score
- 61 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Shenzhen Xinpengcheng away from home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.43 goals for Qingdao Hainiu and 1.60 for Shenzhen Xinpengcheng. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 63 %. Over their last five matches, Qingdao Hainiu took no points and Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 5 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Qingdao Hainiu, 0 draws, 3 wins for Shenzhen Xinpengcheng. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 61 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Qingdao Hainiu | 5.25 | 18 % | +87.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.80 | 19 % | +20.2 % |
| 2Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 1.46 | 63 % | -42.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Qingdao Hainiu
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Qingdao Hainiu
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng3-2Qingdao Hainiu
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng4-0Qingdao Hainiu
- Qingdao Hainiu0-1Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
- Qingdao Hainiu1-0Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
- Shenzhen Xinpengcheng1-3Qingdao Hainiu
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Qingdao Hainiu – Shenzhen Xinpengcheng?
Our model gives 2 · Shenzhen Xinpengcheng a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Qingdao Hainiu win 36 %, draw 25 %, Shenzhen Xinpengcheng win 39 %.
What is the most likely score for Qingdao Hainiu – Shenzhen Xinpengcheng?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.