Machida Zelvia
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Machida Zelvia – Sanfrecce Hiroshima
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261101-0309, Nov 6, 06:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.34 – 1.46
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 57 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Sanfrecce Hiroshima away from home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.34 goals for Machida Zelvia and 1.46 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Bookmakers say the same thing: 40 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Machida Zelvia took 11 points and Sanfrecce Hiroshima 12 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Machida Zelvia, 0 draws, 4 wins for Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Machida Zelvia | 2.85 | 33 % | -1.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 27 % | -3.5 % |
| 2Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2.35 | 40 % | -12.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Machida Zelvia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Machida Zelvia
- 0 draws
- 4 wins
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima2-1Machida Zelvia
- Machida Zelvia1-2Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima2-0Machida Zelvia
- Machida Zelvia1-2Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Machida Zelvia – Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Our model gives 2 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Machida Zelvia win 35 %, draw 28 %, Sanfrecce Hiroshima win 37 %.
What is the most likely score for Machida Zelvia – Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.